Comments on the provisional macroeconomic scenario (2018 EFD)

As part of the procedure envisaged under the memorandum of understanding with the Ministry for the Economy and Finance (MEF), in view of the preparation of the 2018 Economic and Financial Document, the Parliamentary Budget Office (PBO) today transmitted its comments on the provisional trend macroeconomic scenario for 2018-2022 developed by the MEF.


Under the provisions of Italian and European law, the PBO is responsible for providing an independent assessment of the macroeconomic forecasts contained in Government policy documents (Economic and Financial Document and the associated Update). The aim of the procedure is to limit the risk that overly optimistic forecasts for economic developments could undermine the credibility of the public finances. In accordance with the procedures agreed with the MEF, the endorsement process is organised into four phases:


  • transmission of the macroeconomic scenario by the MEF to the PBO
  • possible formulation of comments by the PBO
  • transmission of any modified macroeconomic scenario by the MEF to the PBO
  • final endorsement ruling by the PBO, which may be positive or negative


The endorsement letters are published on the PBO website following the Government’s submission of the relevant policy document (EFD or Update) to Parliament.