Comments on the provisional trend macroeconomic scenario (Update 2018)

As part of the procedure provided for in the memorandum of understanding with the Ministry for the Economy and Finance (MEF), in view of the preparation of the Update of the 2018 Economic and Financial Document (the Update), the PBO today sent its comments on the provisional trend macroeconomic scenario for 2018-2021 prepared by the MEF.


The procedure will conclude with the endorsement process for the trend macroeconomic scenario (i.e. assuming no changes in public finance measures) and, subsequently, the policy forecasts (those that reflect the effects of the budget measures adopted with the coming Budget Act).


Under the provisions of Italian and European law, the PBO is charged with conducting an independent evaluation of the macroeconomic forecasts contained in the Government’s policy documents (the Economic and Financial Document and the associated Update). The aim of the exercise is to limit any excessive optimism in forecasts that might undermine the credibility of the public finances. The endorsement process, using procedures agreed with the MEF, is applied first to the trend forecasts and then to the policy forecasts. Each of these procedures is structured into four phases:


  • transmission of the macroeconomic scenario by the MEF to the PBO;
  • any comments by the PBO;
  • transmission of any modified version of the macroeconomic scenario by the MEF to the PBO
  • final endorsement letter of the PBO, which can be positive or negative.


The endorsement letters are published on the website of the PBO after the Government has sent to Parliament the policy document (EFD or Update) to which they refer.