Comments on the trend macroeconomic scenario (2019 EFD)

As part of the procedure envisaged under the memorandum of understanding with the Ministry for the Economy and Finance (MEF), in view of the preparation of the 2019 Economic and Financial Document, the Parliamentary Budget Office (PBO) today transmitted its comments on the provisional trend macroeconomic scenario for 2019-2022 developed by the MEF.


The procedure will conclude with the endorsement of the trend macroeconomic scenario (i.e. the scenario assuming no new public finance measures) and, subsequently, the policy macroeconomic scenario (the scenario that incorporates the effects of measures introduced with the next Budget Act).


Under the provisions of Italian and European law, the PBO is responsible for providing an independent assessment of the macroeconomic forecasts contained in Government policy documents (Economic and Financial Document and the associated Update). The aim of the procedure is to limit the risk that overly optimistic forecasts for economic developments could undermine the credibility of the public finances. In accordance with the procedures agreed with the MEF, the endorsement process is first used for the trend forecasts and then the policy forecasts. Each of the two sequences has four phases:


  • transmission of the macroeconomic scenario by the MEF to the PBO
  • possible formulation of comments by the PBO
  • transmission of any modified macroeconomic scenario by the MEF to the PBO
  • final endorsement ruling by the PBO, which may be positive or negative


The endorsement letters are published on the PBO website following the Government’s submission of the relevant policy document (EFD or Update) to Parliament.