The new series of Reports on recent economic developments examines developments in the Italian and international economies on a quarterly basis, drawing on the most recent quantitative and qualitative indicators and forecasts of trends in the economy.
The year about to conclude is the ninth consecutive year of expansion in the world economy, an expansion that emerged with a delay in Europe and even more so in Italy. World trade is beginning to display the initial effects of the protectionist war between the United States and China. (more…)
In line with developments in the main advanced economies, the recovery in Italy has also lost some momentum. As discussed in the July Report on Recent Economic Developments, the estimates produced using the short-term models of the PBO signal a slowdown in economic activity, which could continue through the summer. (more…)
After the sustained recovery phase which marked the latter part of 2017, the current year began with a partial deceleration of economic activity. According to the estimates of the short-term PBO model reported in the Note on the economic situation in April, the increase in GDP in the first quarter of 2018 was 0.26 per cent (compared to 0.32 per cent in the last quarter of 2017) and slowed down marginally in the second quarter, reaching 0.21 per cent. (more…)
The Italian recovery is consolidating. The year 2017 closed with GDP growth of +1.4 per cent. The expansion should continue at the same pace this year before decelerating in 2019. With the January issue, the Report on recent economic conditions begins the publication of the PBO’s medium-term economic forecasts based on the Istat-UPB model. These accompany the analysis of international and national economic conditions and the short-term forecasts. (more…)