Comments on the provisional trend macroeconomic scenario (2023 EFD Update)

19 September 2023 | As part of the procedure envisaged in the memorandum of understanding with the Italian Ministry of Economy and Finance (MEF) in view of the preparation of the Update to the 2023 Economic and Financial Document, on 18 September 2023 the Parliamentary Budget Office (PBO) forwarded its comments on the provisional 2023-2026 trend macroeconomic scenario submitted by the MEF on 12 September.

The procedure will continue in the coming days with the endorsement of the trend macroeconomic scenario – assuming no public finance interventions – and then of the policy macroeconomic scenario incorporating the effects of the interventions to be defined with the next budget law.

Based on Italian and European regulations, the PBO is in fact required to perform an independent assessment of the macroeconomic forecasts contained in the Government’s planning documents (the Economic and Financial Document and its Update). The procedure is aimed at limiting the risk that overly optimistic forecasts on economic trends undermine the credibility of public accounts. The endorsement process is performed first on trend forecasts and then on policy forecasts, as agreed with the MEF. Each endorsement is divided into 4 stages:

• transmission of the macroeconomic scenario from the MEF to the PBO
• possible formulation of comments by the PBO
• submission by the MEF to the PBO of the revised version of the macroeconomic scenario, if necessary
• final endorsement by the PBO, which can be positive or negative.

Endorsement letters are published on the PBO website after the policy document they refer to (EFD or EFD Update) has been transmitted by the Government to Parliament.