Comments on the provisional trend macroeconomic scenario (2024 EFD) forwarded to the Ministry of Economy and Finance (MEF)

28 March 2024 | As part of the procedure envisaged in the memorandum of understanding with the Italian Ministry of Economy and Finance (MEF) in view of the preparation of the 2024 Economic and Financial Document (EFD), yesterday the Parliamentary Budget Office (PBO) forwarded its comments on the provisional 2024-27 trend macroeconomic scenario submitted by the MEF on 20 March.

The procedure will end with the endorsement of the trend macroeconomic scenario, assuming no public finance interventions.

Based on Italian and European regulations, the PBO is in fact required to perform an independent assessment of the macroeconomic forecasts contained in the Government’s policy documents (the Economic and Financial Document and its Update, NADEF). The procedure is aimed at limiting the risk that overly optimistic forecasts on economic trends undermine the credibility of public accounts. The endorsement process is performed first on trend forecasts and then on policy forecasts, as agreed with the MEF. Each endorsement is divided into four stages:

  • transmission of the macroeconomic forecasts from the MEF to the PBO
  • possible formulation of comments by the PBO
  • submission by the MEF to the PBO of the revised version of the macroeconomic forecasts, if necessary
  • final endorsement by the PBO, which can be positive or negative.

Endorsement letters are published on the PBO website after the policy document they refer to (EFD or NADEF) has been transmitted by the Government to Parliament.