6 September 2024 | The Parliamentary Budget Office (PBO) submitted to the Ministry of Economy and Finance (MEF) its comments on the provisional trend macroeconomic scenario of the 2025-29 Medium-Term Budgetary Framework (MTBF), sent by the MEF to the PBO on 4 September. The MTBF, which this year will become the new policy framework for the public finance of each EU country, covers a five-year period and its therefore longer than that of previous policy documents.
The procedure will continue in the coming days with the endorsement procedure of the trend macroeconomic scenario first − i.e. assuming no public finance initiatives − and, subsequently, with the endorsement procedure of the policy macroeconomic forecasts incorporating the effects of the net expenditure rationale to be presented in the MTBF.
In compliance with the current Italian and European regulations, the PBO is required to provide an independent assessment of the government’s macroeconomic projections. The aim is to strengthen the forecasting process and mitigate the risk that overly optimistic estimates of economic developments could jeopardise the integrity of the public finances. As is customary, the endorsement process applies first to trend scenarios and then to policy scenarios.
The PBO’s endorsement letters are published on the independent body’s website after the government submits the policy document to the Parliament.
