Comments on the provisional trend macroeconomic scenario (Update 2020)


As part of the procedure provided for in the memorandum of understanding with the Ministry for the Economy and Finance (MEF), in view of the preparation of the Update of the 2020 Economic and Financial Document (the Update), the PBO today sent its comments on the provisional trend macroeconomic scenario for 2020-2023 prepared by the MEF.


The procedure will conclude with the endorsement process for the trend macroeconomic scenario ‑ i.e. assuming no changes in public finance measures ‑ and, subsequently, the policy forecasts that reflect the effects of the budget measures adopted with the coming Budget Act.


Under the provisions of Italian and European law, the PBO is charged with conducting an independent evaluation of the macroeconomic forecasts contained in the Government’s policy documents (the Economic and Financial Document and the associated Update). The aim of the exercise is to limit any excessive optimism in forecasts that might undermine the credibility of the public finances. The endorsement process, using procedures agreed with the MEF, is applied first to the trend forecasts and then to the policy forecasts. Each of these procedures is structured into four phases:


  • transmission of the macroeconomic scenario by the MEF to the PBO;
  • any comments by the PBO;
  • transmission of any modified version of the macroeconomic scenario by the MEF to the PBO
  • final endorsement letter of the PBO, which can be positive or negative.


The endorsement letters for the 2020 Update will be published on the website of the PBO after the transmission to Parliament of the policy document prepared by the Government.