13 April 2023 | Today, the Chair of the Parliamentary Budget Office (PBO), Lilia Cavallari, informed the Presidents of the Italian Chamber of Deputies and Senate that the trend macroeconomic scenario of the 2023 Economic and Financial Document (EFD), drafted by the Italian Ministry of Economy and Finance (MEF) on 7 April, had been endorsed, taking into account the remarks communicated by the PBO on an earlier version.
The PBO Board decided to endorse the trend forecasts transmitted by the MEF on the basis of an analysis that also involved the other institutes that compose the PBO panel (CER, Prometeia, Ref-Ricerche, Oxford Economics, as well as the PBO itself); the trend macroeconomic scenario of the 2023 EFD falls within an acceptable range for the whole forecast horizon (2023-2026), however borderline in 2024.
The forecasts are endorsed based on the economic information available to date and assuming the full and timely implementation of the NRRP projects. However, the situation is unstable and uncertain, also due to geopolitical and financial tensions. The risks are balanced in the short term but are tilted downwards for the coming years.