Endorsement of the trend macroeconomic scenario of the 2021 Update

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The endorsement letter for the trend macroeconomic scenario in the Update to the 2021 Economic and Financial Document (the Update), transmitted by the Ministry for the Economy and Finance (MEF) on 24 September last, was published today on the website of the Parliamentary Budget Office (PBO). The PBO had issued its comments on a preliminary version of the trend forecasts provided by the MEF, to which the MEF responded on 22 September.


Taking account of the uncertainty surrounding the forecasts, the PBO assessed the plausibility of the trend macroeconomic scenario of the 2021 Update on the basis of ranges of acceptable values for the individual variables of which it is composed.


The Board of the PBO therefore endorsed the trend forecasts for the Italian economy in 2021-2022, while underscoring the presence of significant risk factors.


The forecasts for the main variables for 2023-2024 (which did not undergo the endorsement process) also appear to lie within the acceptable range of forecasts, although they are exposed to a variety of risks, mainly on the downside.


As required, the PBO will also assess the policy macroeconomic scenario published in the Update, which incorporates the effects of the upcoming budget measures. The results of the procedure will be announced at the beginning of next week during the parliamentary hearing before the Budget Committees.