Endorsement of trend macroeconomic scenario in the 2021 EFD

The Chairman of the Parliamentary Budget Office (PBO), Giuseppe Pisauro, today notified the Presidents of the Chamber of Deputies and the Senate of the endorsement of the trend macroeconomic scenario for 2021-2024 transmitted by the Ministry for the Economy and Finance (MEF) on 26 March 2021 and presented in the 2021 Economic and Financial Document (EFD).


The Board of the PBO decided to endorse the trend forecasts transmitted by the MEF and also assessed by the other institutes that make up the PBO panel of forecasters (CER, Prometeia, Ref-Ricerche and Oxford Economics, in addition to the PBO itself) as they fall within an acceptable range on the basis of currently available information.


However, it should be emphasised that the forecasts are accompanied by a very high level of uncertainty, induced by the unique nature of the ongoing pandemic and the lack of any historical precedent to refer to.


The macroeconomic outlook appears to be exposed to downside risks in the short and medium term, as it is highly sensitive to the evolution of the health emergency and the measures that may be taken to address it, both in Italy and abroad.