A tool for bringing together the various institutional forecasts, which will be progressively updated.
11 February 2025 | The Parliamentary Budget Office (UPB) has produced a dashboard on GDP, which provides tables and charts about the GDP forecasts for Italy, over a three-year horizon, made by institutional forecasters from 2018. The tool, now available on the UPB website (https://en.upbilancio.it/gdp-forecasts-for-italy/), will be progressively updated as new macroeconomic forecasts are published.
The institutional forecasters taken into account are the Bank of Italy, the European Commission, the IMF, Istat, the Ministry of Economy and Finance (MEF), the OECD and the UPB. For the years before 2025, the forecasts made in the autumn (between October and December) are shown, because this is the period of the presentation of the Budget Law; for the current year, all the forecasts made during the period are shown.
Furthermore, the revision process of the official data is taken into account, which are therefore shown both in the preliminary version (generally released in March) and in the latest official Istat publication.
The dashboard consists of tables and graphs containing:
– The forecasts made by each institution on the three years forecast horizon (t, t+1 and t+2); for the forecasts published in January and February, when the data for the previous year is not yet known, the forecasts for the years t-1, t and t+1 are shown.
– The forecasts of all institutions considered for the single forecasting year.
– The latest estimates, thus the most up-to-date, of each forecaster.
The Dashboard shows only the forecasts of GDP, while with regard to forecast errors the UPB publishes annual analyses in the Report on Budget Policy. The latest publication on this regard is available in paragraph 1.4 of the 2024 Budget Policy Report (https://www.upbilancio.it/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/Estrai-cap.-1.pdf in Italian, for the summary in English see Sintesi-Rapporto-2024_per-il-sito_EN.pdf).
