The Parliamentary Budget Office (PBO) announces the endorsement of the trend macroeconomic scenario of the 2024 Economic and Financial Document (EFD)

Complete Text
Press release

10 April 2024 -Today, the President of the Parliamentary Budget Office (PBO), Lilia Cavallari, informed the Presidents of the Senate of the Republic and the Italian Chamber of Deputies that the trend macroeconomic scenario of the 2024 Economic and Financial Document (EFD), drafted by the Italian Ministry of Economy and Finance (MEF), had been endorsed, taking into account the remarks communicated by the PBO on 28 March on an earlier version.

The PBO Board has endorsed the trend macroeconomic scenario of the 2024 EFD, approved yesterday by the Council of Ministers, as the estimates on the main variables of the scenario lie within an acceptable range, although in several cases they fall within the upper bound of the PBO panel’s assessments. The range is defined on the basis of forecasts that also involved the other institutes that make up the panel (CER, Prometeia, Ref-Ricerche, Oxford Economics, and the PBO itself).

In detail, the endorsement of the EFD’s trend forecasts rests on GDP forecasts (1 per cent in 2024, 1.2 in 2025, 1.1 in 2026 and 0.9 in 2027) that do not exceed the bounds of the PBO panel’s forecasting range and do not deviate excessively from the median assessments, except in 2027; in addition, the government’s forecast of nominal GDP, a variable directly relevant to public finance, is similar to that of PBO and in any case does not exceed the range of the estimates.

The forecasts are endorsed assuming the full and timely implementation of the NRRP projects and the gradual easing of international geopolitical tensions. However, the international framework instability is such that the outlook could change, even rapidly and to a non-negligible extent, over the forecast horizon. Risks, while appearing balanced in the short term, are judged to be downward overall for the coming years.